U.S. Diabetes Prevalence From 1935 to 1979 and Beyond

From 1935 to 1996, the prevalence of diagnosed type 2 diabetes [in the U.S.] climbed nearly 765%.

This shocking statistic is from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as cited in Increased Consumption of Refined Carbohydrates and the Epidemic of Type 2 Diabetes in the United States: an Ecologic Assessment, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 2004, vol. 79, no.5, pp: 774-779.

I thought 765% might be a misprint, so I did some digging.  A similar figure is in DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 82-1232 published in 1981:

• Diabetes prevalence rose from 0.4% of the population in 1935,  to 2.4% in 1979.

This is a six-fold increase.  The major part of the upward trend started in 1960.  Interestingly, that’s when corn syrup started working its way into our food supply.  Coincidence?  The authors of the Department of Human Services paper write:

Preliminary evaluation of these trends suggests that the change in the prevalence of known diabetes has resulted from improvements both in detection of diabetes among high-risk groups and in survivorship among persons with diabetes.

Like type 1 diabetics, many type 2’s need insulin shots

To me, it sounds like they weren’t considering an true increase in the number of new diabetes cases (incidence), but better detection of existing cases and improved longevity of existing patients (prevalence).  Incidence and prevalence are often confusing.  Wikipedia has a clarifying article.  These days, both incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes are greatly increased over 1935 levels.

In January of 2011, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the latest estimates for prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes.

• 8.3% of the total U.S. population has either diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes (earlier percentages in this post were for diagnosed cases only)
• 6% of the U.S. adult population has diagnosed diabetes (My calculation: Population in 2011 was 311 million; with 18.8 million diagnosed cases of diabetes, 7 million undiagnosed)
• Nearly 27% of American adults age 65 or older have diabetes (overwhelmingly type 2)
• Half of Americans 65 and older have prediabetes
• 11% of U.S. adults (nearly 26 million) have diabetes (overwhelmingly type 2)
• 35% of adults (79 million) have prediabetes, and most of those affected don’t know it

Even if type 2 diabetes runs in your family, you may well be able to avoid it.  Here’s a post about prevention of type 2 diabetes.

Steve Parker, M.D.