Scientists say new vaccines needed within a year

face mask, young woman
She’s at little risk of serious illness if she’s generally healthy

The problem is that the virus mutates over time, perhaps to the point that the vaccinated immune system doesn’t recognize the new mutant. Learn the word endemic; you’ll be hearing it more often.

From The Guardian in March, 2021:

The planet could have a year or less before first-generation Covid-19 vaccines are ineffective and modified formulations are needed, according to a survey of epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists.

* * *

The grim forecast of a year or less comes from two-thirds of respondents, according to the People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of organisations including Amnesty International, Oxfam, and UNAIDS, who carried out the survey of 77 scientists from 28 countries. Nearly one-third of the respondents indicated that the time-frame was likely nine months or less.

Source: Covid: new vaccines needed globally within a year, say scientists | Coronavirus | The Guardian

Another issue is that we don’t know how long the vaccine’s effectiveness lasts. Pfizer’s CEO recently suggested a booster by be needed as soon as six months after the last shot.

Steve Parker, M.D.

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Celebrity Culture Promotes Consumerism

h/t Fanatic Cook

Trainer Mark Rippetoe On the Impact of the Pandemic

young woman, exercise, weight training, gym
Not enough weight!
<p value="<amp-fit-text layout="fixed-height" min-font-size="6" max-font-size="72" height="80">Mark Rippetoe posted an interesting <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://startingstrength.com/article/the-new-fitness-industry&quot; data-type="URL" data-id="https://startingstrength.com/article/the-new-fitness-industry&quot; target="_blank">article on changes in the fitness industry precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic</a>. He also appreciates the difference between exercise/recreation and <em>training</em>:Mark Rippetoe posted an interesting article on changes in the fitness industry precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic. He also appreciates the difference between exercise/recreation and training:

When the opportunity to expand the government’s control in the name of Public Health or Safety or Your Continued Well-being or Not Overwhelming the Healthcare System or whatever comes along next, suddenly your having fun is not nearly as important as obeying the commands of the petty little fucks that enjoy telling other people what to do. Fun is “non-essential,” you see. Your obedience isessential. And that is why your globogym is now closed. 

Depending on where you live and how much cash the corporation has on hand, it may be closed for a long time, or it might be closed permanently. Because it is viewed as Recreation, and is therefore “non-essential,” the petty fucks in charge feel no responsibility to ensure your fun – as if the kind of innocent fun a person has is their decision to make. 

And the government has already described their ideas about exercise. I wrote an article about this several years ago that shows you how completely divorced from our particular reality these fools are. It could be argued that their version of exercise is so utterly wasteful of time that you would in fact be better off locked in your house. And that is what they intend to do.

So it’s time for a paradigm shift. Training – the process we employ to intentionally increase our strength and our health over time – is fundamentally different than stopping by the club on the way home, catching a pump, catching a sweat, catching a shower, and finishing the trip having had fun. Training may actually be no fun at all. The results of training are enjoyable, but the process is hard, and it requires commitment, patience, and eventually the courage to do things you’re not sure you can do. It is an educational process, of teaching both your body and mind to be stronger.

Steve Parker, M.D.

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Mediterranean Diet Lowers Parkinson’s Disease Risk for Women

  • santorini, greece

Investigators studied a female Swedish population.

Women who adhere closely to a Mediterranean diet in their 30s and 40s have a lower risk of Parkinson’s disease later in life, particularly once they reach their mid-60s, a large population-based Swedish study found.The study, “Mediterranean Dietary Pattern at Middle Age and Risk of Parkinson’s Disease: A Swedish Cohort Study,” was published in the journal Movement Disorders.Diet is increasingly recognized for its potential influence on a person’s risk of several diseases. With Parkinson’s, for instance, studies have suggested that dairy products could be a risk factor for its development.

Source: Holding to Mediterranean Diet Lowers Parkinson’s Risk for Women, Study Finds

Steve Parker, M.D.

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Another Reason to Avoid Chronic Proton Pump Inhibitor Use: Higher Risk of Diabetes

prilosec, proton pump inhibitor
Neither the cited study nor I implicate Prilosec in particular

Regular use of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) increases patients’ risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by 24%, an observational study published in Gut has suggested.

Source: Regular use of PPIs linked with increased risk of type 2 diabetes, study suggests | News | Pharmaceutical Journal

Proton pump inhibitors are widely used in the U.S. to treat esophageal reflux, ulcers, and dyspepsia. They are among the most widely prescribed drugs. You can also get them over-the-counter. Brand names include Protonix, Prilosec, and Nexium.

The study at hand defined “regular use” as at least twice per week. The study was an epidemiological one observing participants for 10-12 years. The more years of regular use, the greater risk of diabetes developing. Nearly all participants were White, so results may not apply to other ethnicities.

Note that this study doesn’t prove that PPIs cause diabetes. They just found a statistical linkage. As you know, correlation does not equal causation. We don’t know how PPIs could cause T2 diabetes. From the article:

According to the study, the possible mechanism for the association could be related to gut microbiota, as previous studies have shown that PPI use is associated with reduced diversity of gut microbiome and consistent changes in the microbiota phenotype.

If your physician recommends you take a PPI chronically, ask about alternatives.

Steve Parker, M.D.

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“Thank You” to My Supporters!

I published my first book in 2007 to extend my healing reach beyond the confines of the clinic and hospital room. I’m certain my writing has improved the health of many folks I’ll never know about, and that means more to me than any financial success I’ve had with the books.

In 2020, my net profit from writing was $937.08, which is admittedly pitiful. The prior year profit was $5,802.48. Pandemic effect, maybe? To lower my expenses in 2021, I’ll look into a private PO box instead of US Postal Service ($168/year), drop Amazon Prime ($129/year), and negotiate lower fees with Network Solutions.

I am blessed to have a hospitalist job that pays well. COVID-19 has caused major economic hardship for many of you, including unemployment.

My primary means of advertising has been blogging. Cross-posting on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn has done almost nothing for book sales. A few years ago I could give my hospital patients a business card with links to my books, but my employer insisted I stop.

If you care to support my writing, buy a book. If not for yourself, then for someone you care about.

Steve Parker, M.D.

PS: Guesstimating my combined federal and state taxes being 40%, I have $562.25 left after paying taxes. And don’t forget sales tax on many things I might buy.

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front cover of paleobetic diet

Click to purchase at Amazon.com. E-book also available at Smashwords. com.

front cover of paleobetic diet

Click to purchase at Amazon.com. E-book also available at Smashwords. com.

What About Convalescent Plasma for Covid-19?

From a January 2021 editorial in NEJM:

Considering the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the paucity of treatment options, and the enthusiasm for and controversy about convalescent plasma, a high-quality, multicenter, randomized, controlled trial is most welcome. Libster and colleagues now report in the Journal the results of a well-executed trial of early convalescent plasma in older adult patients in whom symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was diagnosed with the use of a polymerase-chain-reaction assay. In this double-blind trial, 250 ml of convalescent plasma with an IgG titer greater than 1:1000 against SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein was compared with saline placebo in patients who were 65 to 74 years of age and had prespecified coexisting conditions and in patients who were 75 years of age or older with or without coexisting conditions.

The patients received convalescent plasma or placebo less than 72 hours after symptom onset. In the intention-to-treat population, a primary end-point event (progression to predefined severe disease during follow-up) occurred in 16% (13 of 80 patients) and 31% (25 of 80 patients) of the well-matched convalescent plasma and placebo groups, respectively. A dose-dependent effect relative to the antibody titers after infusion was observed, and this effect was larger after the exclusion of 6 patients who had a primary end-point event before infusion. The benefits of convalescent plasma with respect to the secondary end points were consistent with those associated with the primary end point. No serious adverse events were observed. The authors conclude that “early administration of high-titer convalescent plasma against SARS-CoV-2 to mildly ill infected older adults reduced the progression of Covid-19.” Even before the current trial, the EUA [emergency use authorization] emphasized the potential advantages of early therapy with high-titer convalescent plasma. Unfortunately, a direct comparison of antibody levels in the current trial with assays specified in the FDA EUA is not available. Antibody titers in the recipients at enrollment were not provided, so no comment can be made about the usefulness of seroreactivity in patients as a criterion for convalescent plasma use.

At this time, convalescent plasma should be reserved for patients in whom the duration, severity, and risk of progression of illness are similar to those in the patients in this trial. Younger high-risk patients (and certain immunodeficient patients) with these disease characteristics should be considered as well.

Source: (A Little) Clarity on Convalescent Plasma for Covid-19 | NEJM

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Kaiser Family Foundation’s 2020 Employer Health Benefits Survey 

This annual survey of employers provides a detailed look at trends in employer-sponsored health coverage, including premiums, employee contributions, cost-sharing provisions, offer rates, wellness programs, and employer practices. The 2020 survey included 1,765 interviews with non-federal public and private firms.

Annual premiums for employer-sponsored family health coverage reached $21,342 this year, up 4% from last year, with workers on average paying $5,588 toward the cost of their coverage. The average deductible among covered workers in a plan with a general annual deductible is $1,644 for single coverage. Fifty-five percent of small firms and 99% of large firms offer health benefits to at least some of their workers, with an overall offer rate of 56%.

Source: 2020 Employer Health Benefits Survey | KFF

Get and stay as health as possible so you don’t need to use health insurance or pay high deductibles before insurance kicks in. Let me help.

Steve Parker, M.D.

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Looks Like Blue Cross Has Lost a Huge Antitrust Lawsuit

From The New York Times, Sept 24, 2020:

The nation’s Blue Cross plans have reached a tentative $2.7 billion settlement in a federal lawsuit filed by their customers that accuses the group of engaging in a conspiracy to thwart competition among the individual companies, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.

The settlement, which was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, would need to be agreed to by each of the three dozen Blue Cross insurers that make up the trade group, the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association. Judge R. David Proctor of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama, who is overseeing the case in that state, also still needs to approve the proposed settlement.

It seems that the judge did indeed approve the settlement. I’v read elsewhere that the settlement was only $2.67 billion. This the culmination of litigation that started in 2012. Check the settlement website to see if you qualify for a piece of the pie. The lawyers are asking for 25%. From the settlement website:

Plaintiffs allege that Settling Defendants violated antitrust laws by entering into an agreement not to compete with each other and to limit competition among themselves in selling health insurance and administrative services for health insurance. Settling Defendants deny all allegations of wrongdoing and assert that their conduct results in lower healthcare costs and greater access to care for their customers. The Court has not decided who is right or wrong. Instead, Plaintiffs and Settling Defendants have agreed to a Settlement to avoid the risk and cost of further litigation.

Steve Parker, M.D.

PS: Keep yourself as healthy as possible so you don’t have to get mired in the medical-industrial complex. Let me help.

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Ketogenic Diet Rapidly Reduces Liver Fat in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

stages of liver damage

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is an important contributor to cirrhosis, i.e., scarring in the liver that impairs liver function. In the study at hand, a ketogenic diet reduced liver fat by 31% over just six days. I don’t have many details of the diet used, but it reduced carbohydrates to 20 grams/day.

Significance

Ketogenic diet is an effective treatment for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Here, we present evidence that hepatic mitochondrial fluxes and redox state are markedly altered during ketogenic diet-induced reversal of NAFLD in humans. Ketogenic diet for 6 [days] markedly decreased liver fat content and hepatic insulin resistance. These changes were associated with increased net hydrolysis of liver triglycerides and decreased endogenous glucose production and serum insulin concentrations. Partitioning of fatty acids toward ketogenesis increased, which was associated with increased hepatic mitochondrial redox state and decreased hepatic citrate synthase flux. These data demonstrate heretofore undescribed adaptations underlying the reversal of NAFLD by ketogenic diet and highlight hepatic mitochondrial fluxes and redox state as potential treatment targets in NAFLD.

Abstract

Weight loss by ketogenic diet (KD) has gained popularity in management of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). KD rapidly reverses NAFLD and insulin resistance despite increasing circulating nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), the main substrate for synthesis of intrahepatic triglycerides (IHTG). To explore the underlying mechanism, we quantified hepatic mitochondrial fluxes and their regulators in humans by using positional isotopomer NMR tracer analysis. Ten overweight/obese subjects received stable isotope infusions of: [D7]glucose, [13C4]β-hydroxybutyrate and [3-13C]lactate before and after a 6-d KD. IHTG was determined by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS). The KD diet decreased IHTG by 31% in the face of a 3% decrease in body weight and decreased hepatic insulin resistance (−58%) despite an increase in NEFA concentrations (+35%). These changes were attributed to increased net hydrolysis of IHTG and partitioning of the resulting fatty acids toward ketogenesis (+232%) due to reductions in serum insulin concentrations (−53%) and hepatic citrate synthase flux (−38%), respectively. The former was attributed to decreased hepatic insulin resistance and the latter to increased hepatic mitochondrial redox state (+167%) and decreased plasma leptin (−45%) and triiodothyronine (−21%) concentrations. These data demonstrate heretofore undescribed adaptations underlying the reversal of NAFLD by KD: That is, markedly altered hepatic mitochondrial fluxes and redox state to promote ketogenesis rather than synthesis of IHTG.

Source: Effect of a ketogenic diet on hepatic steatosis and hepatic mitochondrial metabolism in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease | PNAS

Steve Parker, M.D.

PS: If you have the Advanced Mediterranean Diet, 2nd edition, you already have the Ketogenic Mediterranean Diet as one of two options.